Why Is This US Shutdown Different (as well as More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat element in American political life – however this one feels particularly intractable because of political dynamics and bad blood between the two parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave as Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time because both parties – including the President – can see some merit in digging in.
These are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues
Democratic supporters has been demanding for months that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown early this year. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The budget director has already announced the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust on either side
While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a controversial AI-generated image featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, experts indicate should the President carries out his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become more long-lasting.